February 2026 Furniture Insights Report From Smith Leonard
Furniture World News Desk on
3/4/2026
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New orders were down 11% compared to the prior month of November 2025, likely driven by holidays. However, new orders were up 1% in December 2025 compared to December 2024. Year to date through December, new orders ended the year flat with 2024 ignoring the impact of tariffs/inflation.
December 2025 shipments were flat with both November 2025 and December 2024. Year to date through December 2025, shipments ended the year down 1% compared to 2024.
December 2025 backlogs were down 2% compared to December 2024, and down 1% from November 2025.
Receivable levels were down 11% from November 2025, and also down 9% from December 2024.
Inventories were flat with November 2025 and again up 4% from December 2024.
Payrolls were down 3% compared to November 2025, but up 5% compared to December 2024.
Employee levels are again materially in line with recent months and the prior year.
National
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.8 points to 120.0 in February.
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 4.8 points to 72.0.
“Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).”
Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds. Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February. Labor market mentions eased a bit in February, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.”
Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items over the next six months rose in February. Those who said “yes” and “maybe” to buying big-ticket items ahead increased, while the number of those saying “no” declined. Used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular items within their categories for future purchases.
Housing
Existing-home sales decreased by 8.4% in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem – including agents and homebuyers and sellers – with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory.
Month-over-month and year-over-year sales fell in all regions.
“The decrease in sales is disappointing. The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Affordability conditions are improving, with NAR’s Housing Affordability Index showing that housing is the most affordable it’s been since March 2022. This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low.”
Total Existing-Home Sales for January
- 8.4% decrease in existing-home sales month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million.
- 4.4% decrease in sales year over year.
Single-Family-Homes Sales in January
- 9.0% decrease in sales month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.53 million, down 4.3% from January 2025.
- $400,300: Median home price, up 0.6% from last year.
Condominiums and Co-ops Sales in January
- 2.6% decrease in sales month over month and year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 380,000, down 5.0% fromlast year.
- $364,600: Median price, up 3.8% from January 2025.
Mortgage Rates
- 6.10%: Τhe average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in January, according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.19% in December and 6.96% one year ago.
Sales of new single-family houses in December 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 745,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.7 percent below the November 2025 rate of 758,000, and is 3.8 percent above the December 2024 rate of 718,000.
Compared to December 2024 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales were up 3.8% overall with sales also up 30.1% in the Midwest, up 12.1% in the Northeast, up 1.8% in the West, but down 1.1% in the South.
Other
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment. The decrease in imports was smaller than in the prior quarter.The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.9 percent, both the same as previously estimated.
GDP for 2025
Real GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2025 (from the 2024 annual level to the 2025 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in 2024.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in 2025, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in 2024.
A lot to cover this month. First off, we officially wrap up 2025 with year-to-date new orders flat and shipments down 1% compared to 2024 for the participants in our survey (ignoring impact of tariffs/inflation), which is materially in line with other industry reporting and economic data. Certainly not what people were hoping for coming into 2025, but perhaps a relative win in light of the challenges presented by the year’s disruptions.
This month we saw the Supreme Court strike down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, though they were quickly replaced with temporary tariffs of 10% (or 15%) that are generally lower than those imposed under IEEPA or otherwise negotiated, particularly for Asian countries. Certainly a lot still be determined on how these tariffs are unwound, potentially refunded and to who, what will ultimately replace them, then not to mention the operational burden on those within the industry who will get to once again deal with potentially resetting their cost and pricing structures ahead of the April Market.
While the situation in Iran presents real-life human consequences, history has shown the impact of such conflicts on the stock market or consumer confidence to be generally short-lived. The more immediate concern to the economy and the industry would seem to be the impact of oil prices on container costs and discretionary income that drive consumer spending.
On a brighter note, there is some good news coming out of housing with the affordability index improving across all regions, which coupled with the continued decline in interest rates could drive the increased activity within the industry for 2026 we’ve been looking for.
MARK LAFERRIERE, Assurance Partner
Mark has over 25 years of experience working in broad-based public accounting. He is an integral member of the firm’s Furniture practice group and provides various assurance services for manufacturing, distribution, service, retail and transportation clients. He also a member of the Employee Benefit Plan group.